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Latest Results Are In for Winthrop/ETV Poll

August 22, 2008

For Immediate Release
August 21 , 2008

Latest Results Are In for Winthrop/ETV Poll
Survey of Likely Voters in 11 Southern States
Show McCain Leading Obama 51 to 35 Percent
80 Percent of Clinton Supporters Won’t Sit Out Election

Almost 90 Percent Say Ho-Hum to Notion of VP from South
Obama Slightly Better at Feeling Their Pain
Economy #1 Issue on Voters’ Minds
One-third Say Neither Candidate Has Clear Cut Solutions
Almost 75 Percent of African Americans Minimize Impact of Race in Race

Columbia SCThe results of the latest Winthrop/ETV Poll, conducted among likely voters in 11 Southern states between August 1 and August 17, are in.

The results will be released exclusively during the Thursday, Aug. 21 edition of South Carolina ETV’s “The Big Picture” program at 7:30 p.m. ET. ETV is the public television and radio network in South Carolina.

The Winthrop/ETV Poll was conducted among 1088 likely voters from AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, VA. Data utilizing all respondents has a margin of error of plus/minus 2.97 percent. As is true with all survey data, any results that use a subset of the respondents will have a higher margin of error. Data is weighted by state. States are sub-divided as follows: Deep South: AL, GA, LA, MS, SC. Peripheral South: AR, FL, NC, TN, TX, VA.

Please note: Southern African Americans in this sample were overwhelmingly supporters of Obama (only 3.2 percent identified themselves as McCain supporters). For further clarification on how “Christian,” “Evangelical” and “Working Class Whites” were defined, see Methodology description.

Commenting on the results, Dr. Scott Huffmon, director of the Winthrop/ETV Poll initiative, said, “McCain’s support is rock solid in so many ways that in those places where Obama identifies even the smallest hairline crack, he needs to pry it open if he hopes to draw voters away from McCain–especially in a state like Virginia, where the race may ultimately be decided by a handful of votes. The Southern working class is still not familiar with Obama, and trust is the key to this demographic. Because they aren’t ready to put their trust in him yet, Obama can utilize the convention to fully identify himself to Americans, and launch two massive campaigns, one saying ‘Here’s who I am’ and the other ‘Here’s how McCain is wrong.’”

Among the Winthrop/ETV Poll findings:

· When given the scenario where the election was being held the day they were called, and the candidates were Barack Obama and John McCain, among all of the likely voters, McCain led with 51.3 percent over Obama’s 35.1 percent.

· Sen. Hillary Clinton and Former President Bill Clinton will play highly visible roles at the Democratic Convention next week, some say in an effort to salve lingering wounds over Hillary Clinton’s defeat at Obama’s hands. Yet, when asked if they ever seriously considered not voting in the general election, if Hillary Clinton didn’t get the nod, almost 80 percent of self-identified Clinton supporters said no.

· Although over 70 percent of those polled said the VP choice was very, or somewhat, important in helping them decide their pick for the top spot, over 87 percent said it makes no difference if the VP candidate hailed from the South.

· Over 50 percent of all the respondents disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as president, while almost 63 percent of them feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.

· The one issue respondents cited as the most important to them in the upcoming presidential election was overwhelmingly the economy (35.7 percent). By a margin of almost three-to-one they chose the economy over Iraq (12.0), and the next most popular response, the price of gas, by close to a six-to-one margin (5.8 percent).

· When asked who would do a better job, Obama or McCain, in tackling energy (including gas prices), the situation in Iraq, taxes, illegal immigration, and terrorism, McCain stacked up a double-digit lead on each of those issues.

· Who would do a better job on healthcare elicited a far different response. Obama and McCain were neck-and-neck, with less than one percent separating the two (41.6 McCain to 40.8 Obama).

· When it comes to which candidate understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives, Obama slightly bested McCain among all those polled (41.1 to 39.1) and by an over six percent margin among those likely voters living in the peripheral South (43.2 to 36.8) in NC, VA, FL, AR, TN, TX. Some believe that three of these states are in play, and may go Democratic on Election Day.

· Fully one-third of the poll’s respondents felt that neither Obama nor McCain had a clear plan for solving the country’s problems.

· Over 56 percent of all those polled said it was very, or somewhat important that a president has served in the U.S. military, while over 28 percent thought it was not at all important; less than six percentage points separated those who are at least somewhat concerned from those who are least somewhat unconcerned McCain will pursue policies too similar to George Bush’s; almost half of all respondents (49.4) feel Obama lacks the necessary experience to be president.

· Despite the fact that this will be the first time that Americans have the opportunity to vote for an African-American for president, almost three-out-of-four blacks say that the race of the candidate for president is either not very important, or not at all important.

· Among the remaining respondents (All, Deep South, Peripheral South, Whites, Working Class Whites), at least 80 percent said the race of the candidate was either not very important, or not at all important.

· McCain will be turning 72 on Aug. 29. When asked at what age would you say someone is too old to run for the presidency, over one-third either said no age is too old, or they weren’t sure what that age would be. The median age identified by respondents as “too old” was 74.


WINTHROP/ETV POLL RESULTS

Suppose the election were being held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for – Barack Obama, the Democrat (or) John McCain, the Republican? [names rotated]

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Christians
(white only)

Evangelicals
(white only)

McCain

51.3%

56.6%

49.1%

60.1%

64.7%

71.5%

Obama

35.1%

31%

36.8%

25.5%

22%

17%

Someone Else [volunteered]

2.7%

2.8%

2.6%

5.8%

2.7%

3.4%

Undecided [volunteered]

8.3%

6.3%

9.2%

6.3%

8.7%

6.5%

Refused

2.6%

3.2%

2.3%

2.2%

1.9%

1.6%


Did you ever seriously consider not voting in the general election if your favored candidate in the primaries didn’t get the nomination?

All

Clinton Supporters

Yes

12.4%

18.6%

No

84.7%

79.8%

Don’t Know/Refused

2.9%

1.6%


How important is a candidate’s pick for vice president in deciding which presidential candidate you will vote for – is it very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Very Important

37.5%

38%

37.1%

48.3%

Somewhat Important

33.4%

32.9%

33.6%

28.5%

Not Very Important

13.2%

14.7%

12.6%

10.2%

Not At All Important

14.1%

12.8%

14.7%

11.1%

Don’t Know/Refused

1.8%

1.6%

2%

1.9%


Would choosing a vice presidential candidate from the South make you more likely or less likely to vote for a presidential candidate, or would it make no difference?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Native Southerners

More Likely

7.1%

8%

6.7%

10.5%

8%

Less Likely

2.5%

2.6%

2.5%

1.8%

2.5%

Makes No Difference

87.2%

85.9%

87.8%

84.9%

87.4%

Not Sure

2.5%

3.2%

2.1%

2.8%

1.7%

Refused

0.7%

0.3%

0.9%

0.0%

.4%


Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Approve

35.2%

38.5%

33.9%

37.8%

Disapprove

52.5%

48.7%

54.1%

53.1%

Don’t Know/Refused

12.3%

12.7%

12.0%

9.1%


Thinking about the current path that our nation is taking, do you think our country is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Right Track

24.5%

27%

23.5%

20.9%

Wrong Direction

62.5%

60%

63.5%

68.2%

Don’t Know/Refused

13.0%

13%

13.0%

10.9%


Which of the following comes closest to your preference regarding U.S. policy on the environment: [answers rotated]

The U.S. government should be more active in protecting the environment.
The U.S. government should continue its current environmental policies.
The U.S. government should less involved in environmental issues

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

U.S Gov’t More Active

57.2%

54.7%

58.2%

58.3%

U.S. Gov’t Continue Current

21.2%

22.3%

20.8%

21.4%

U.S. Gov’t Less Involved

17.3%

17.8%

17.1%

16.8%

Not Sure [volunteered]

3.9%

4.9%

3.5%

3%

Refused [volunteered]

0.4%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%


Which of the following qualities is most important to you in selecting the candidate for whom you will vote? [answers rotated]

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Christians
(white only)

Evangelicals
(white only)

Experience

21.1%

26.3%

19%

20.8%

23.4%

21.3%

Knowledge/Intelligence

18.2%

16.0%

19%

13.1%

15.8%

11.7%

Honesty

25.7%

21.2%

27.5%

32.4%

24.4%

25.8%

Diplomatic Skills

3.7%

1.9%

4.5%

4.5%

2.8%

2.6%

Holds Positions Similar to Yours

5.8%

6.4%

5.6%

2.8%

5.2%

5.1%

Exhibits Values Similar to Yours

19.8%

19.9%

19.8%

20.3%

23.1%

28.9%

Not Sure [volunteered]

4.8%

6.7%

3.9%

4.6%

4.3%

4.2%

Refused

1.0%

1.6%

0.8%

1.4%

1.1%

0.5%


What is the one issue that is most important to you in the upcoming presidential election? [NOTE: Question open-ended; responses were categorized by trained interviewers]

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Economy      35.7%

Economy  34.8%

Economy          35.9%

Economy             32.4%

Iraq             12.0%

Iraq         10.4%

Iraq                 12.5%

Iraq                    15.3%

Price of Gas    5.8%

Healthcare 7.3%

Price of Gas        6.0%

Price of Gas           6.2%

Healthcare      5.3%

Terrorism   6.6%

Healthcare          4.4%

Healthcare            5.6%


I’m going to read a list of issues, for each issue, I’d like for you to tell me –if you had to choose—whether you think John McCain or Barack Obama would do a better job on that issue.

The first issue is healthcare. Who do you think would do better on that issue?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

41.6%

47.5%

39.2%

48.3%

Obama

40.8%

36.9%

42.4%

34.9%

Neither/Do the Same [volunteered]

8.1%

6.7%

8.6%

7.7%

Not Sure [volunteered]

9.1%

8.3%

9.4%

8.7%

Refused

0.5%

0.6%

0.4%

0.3%


How about energy, including gas prices?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

47.3%

51%

45.9%

50.1%

Obama

33.6%

30.6%

34.7%

27.5%

Neither/Do the Same [volunteered]

10.7%

8.9%

11.3%

9.0%

Not Sure [volunteered]

7.8%

8.6%

7.6%

11.7%

Refused

0.6%

1%

0.5%

1.8%


How about the situation in Iraq?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

53.7%

56.8%

52.5%

59.5%

Obama

33.5%

30.5%

34.6%

25.1%

Neither/Do the Same [volunteered]

6.4%

4.4%

7.2%

6.5%

Not Sure [volunteered]

6.0%

7.3%

5.6%

8.0%

Refused

0.3%

1.0%

0.1%

0.8%


How about taxes?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

50%

54.8%

48%

51%

Obama

30.3%

30.3%

30.2%

23.4%

Neither/Do the Same [volunteered]

10.1%

5.4%

12%

10.7%

Not Sure [volunteered]

9.2%

8.3%

9.6%

14.1%

Refused

0.4%

1.3%

0.1%

0.8%


How about illegal immigration?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

42.1%

44.4%

41.2%

42.4%

Obama

25.5%

25.7%

25.4%

18.1%

Neither/Do the Same [volunteered]

14%

14%

14%

16.6%

Not Sure [volunteered]

17.3%

14.3%

18.6%

21.3%

Refused

1%

1.6%

0.8%

1.6%


How about moral values?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

45.1%

49.2%

43.4%

55.7%

Obama

28.2%

26.7%

28.8%

21.8%

Neither/Do the Same [volunteered]

17.5%

13%

19.3%

14.2%

Not Sure [volunteered]

8.5%

10.2%

7.8%

7.8%

Refused

0.7%

1%

0.7%

0.6%


How about terrorism?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

57.9%

61.6%

56.3%

62.6%

Obama

25.2%

23.8%

25.7%

18.5%

Neither/Do the Same [volunteered]

9%

5.4%

10.4%

8.7%

Not Sure [volunteered]

7.6%

8.3%

7.4%

9.3%

Refused

0.3%

1.0%

0.1%

0.8%


Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Barack Obama or more to John McCain?

The first is “Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives.”

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

39.1%

44.9%

36.8%

47%

Obama

41.1%

36%

43.2%

33.1%

Applies to Both Equally [volunteered]

8.2%

8.3%

8.1%

9.2%

Applies to Neither [volunteered]

7.9%

7.3%

8.1%

7.5%

Not Sure [volunteered]

3.5%

2.9%

3.8%

2.8%

Refused [volunteered]

0.2%

0.6%

0.0%

0.3%


How about “Is independent in his thoughts and actions.”

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

41.1%

47.8%

38.4%

47.9%

Obama

38.1%

33.4%

40%

31.1%

Applies to Both Equally [volunteered]

7.2%

5.4%

7.8%

3.8%

Applies to Neither [volunteered]

7.3%

6.1%

7.8%

8.1%

Not Sure [volunteered]

5.8%

6.4%

5.6%

8.2%

Refused [volunteered]

0.4%

1.0%

0.3%

0.8%


Would work well with both parties to get things done in Washington.

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

45.8%

49%

44.4%

53.7%

Obama

32.9%

30.9%

33.7%

27.6%

Applies to Both Equally [volunteered]

8.8%

6.7%

9.7%

6.4%

Applies to Neither [volunteered]

7.0%

8.3%

6.6%

3.9%

Not Sure [volunteered]

4.9%

3.8%

5.2%

7.6%

Refused [volunteered]

0.6%

1.3%

0.4%

0.8%


Cares about the needs of people like you.

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

37%

43%

34.5%

43.2%

Obama

37.9%

34.4%

39.3%

33.3%

Applies to Both Equally [volunteered]

8.5%

8%

8.8%

5.3%

Applies to Neither [volunteered]

11.6%

8.9%

12.7%

13.0%

Not Sure [volunteered]

4.5%

4.5%

4.5%

5.0%

Refused [volunteered]

0.6%

1.3%

0.3%

0.3%


Is a strong leader.

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

50.1%

53%

48.8%

56.3%

Obama

30.3%

27.8%

31.4%

24.9%

Applies to Both Equally [volunteered]

8.7%

6.7%

9.6%

5.4%

Applies to Neither [volunteered]

5.6%

6.4%

5.4%

7.1%

Not Sure [volunteered]

4.5%

4.8%

4.5%

5.9%

Refused [volunteered]

0.7%

1.3%

0.4%

0.3%


Would stand up to special interests, including those aligned with his party.

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

40.8%

44.1%

39.4%

48%

Obama

33.7%

31.9%

34.5%

26.7%

Applies to Both Equally [volunteered]

6.4%

4.8%

7.1%

3.6%

Applies to Neither [volunteered]

10.9%

9.6%

11.4%

8.2%

Not Sure [volunteered]

7.3%

8.0%

7%

11.5%

Refused [volunteered]

0.9%

1.6%

0.7%

2.0%


Shares your values.

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

45.1%

50%

43.2%

51.1%

Obama

32.9%

29.2%

34.4%

23.8%

Applies to Both Equally [volunteered]

7.5%

6.1%

8%

6.4%

Applies to Neither [volunteered]

8.7%

8.7%

8.7%

8.8%

Not Sure [volunteered]

5.2%

4.5%

5.5%

9.6%

Refused [volunteered]

0.6%

1.6%

0.1%

0.3%


Has a clear plan for solving the country’s problems.

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

29.8%

34.1%

28.1%

39.3%

Obama

26.2%

24.1%

26.9%

20.1%

Applies to Both Equally [volunteered]

4.5%

4.2%

4.6%

3.7%

Applies to Neither [volunteered]

33.3%

29.6%

34.8%

27.9%

Not Sure [volunteered]

5.6%

5.8%

5.5%

7.9%

Refused [volunteered]

0.6%

2.3%

0.0%

1.1%


Is honest and trustworthy.

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

McCain

40.7%

44.1%

39.2%

49.8%

Obama

27.9%

25.4%

28.9%

19.6%

Applies to Both Equally [volunteered]

16.9%

13.5%

18.4%

13.1%

Applies to Neither [volunteered]

9.3%

8.4%

9.7%

9.8%

Not Sure [volunteered]

4.5%

6.8%

3.5%

7.4%

Refused [volunteered]

0.7%

1.9%

0.3%

0.3%


How important is it that a president has served in the United States military – is it very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not at all important?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Very Important

27.3%

32.7%

25.1%

37.8%

Somewhat Important

28.8%

26%

29.9%

24.3%

Not Very Important

14.4%

12.8%

15%

12.7%

Not At All Important

28.3%

26%

29.2%

23.4%

Don’t Know/Refused

1.3%

2.6%

0.8%

1.9%


How concerned are you that, as president, John McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to what George W. Bush has pursued – very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not concerned at all.

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Very Concerned

34.6%

32.1%

35.5%

30.9%

Somewhat Concerned

16.8%

15.4%

17.4%

20.8%

Not Too Concerned

15%

17%

14.2%

16.6%

Not At All Concerned

30.9%

33.7%

29.7%

29%

Don’t Know/Refused

2.8%

1.9%

3.2%

2.7%


I’d like to ask you what you think about Barack Obama’s level of experience. Do you think he has enough experience to be president, does not have enough experience to be president, or are not sure whether he has enough experience to be president?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Has Enough Experience

31.3%

27.3%

32.9%

21.2%

Does Not Have Enough Experience

49.4%

53.4%

47.8%

57.8%

Not Sure

18.3%

18.3%

18.3%

20.5%

Refused

1%

1%

1.1%

0.5%


I’d like for you to think about your circle of closest friends. Do you think the majority of them would have a serious problem voting for an African American for president, somewhat of a problem voting for an African American for president, or no problem at all voting for an African American for president?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Serious Problem

5.8%

6.5%

5.5%

9%

Somewhat of a Problem

16.5%

16.8%

16.4%

23%

No Problem At All

73.2%

72.9%

73.3%

63%

Not Sure

3.9%

3.9%

3.8%

3.9%

Refused

0.6%

0.0%

0.9%

1%


In your choice for president, how important is the race of the candidate – very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Whites

Blacks

Working Class Whites

Very Important

6.4%

8.7%

5.5%

4.6%

18.8%

9.1%

Somewhat Important

5.8%

6.8%

5.5%

5.3%

8.3%

8.3%

Not Very Important

13.5%

14.8%

12.9%

14.7%

12%

15.7%

Not At All Important

73.3%

68.4%

75.1%

74.3%

60.9%

65.1%

Don’t Know/Refused

1.1%

1.3%

1.1%

1.1%

0.0%

1.8%


In your choice for president, how important is the age of the candidate – very important, somewhat important, not so important or not important at all?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Very Important

12.9%

14.2%

12.4%

16.9%

Somewhat Important

34.6%

32.6%

35.6%

30%

Not Very Important

16.1%

16.8%

15.8%

14.8%

Not At All Important

35.3%

35.5%

35.2%

36.8%

Don’t Know/Refused

1.1%

1%

1.1%

1.4%


At what age would you say someone is “too old” to run for president?

Not Sure

14.9%

No Age Too Old

21.2%

Mean

73.73 years old

Median

74 years old

Mode

70 years old


Even if the candidate were a practicing Christian, would having a Muslim parent impact your willingness to vote for a candidate for president?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Working Class Whites

Christians
(white only)

Evangelicals
(white only)

Yes

24.8%

27.7%

23.5%

37.7%

30%

40.3%

No

65%

59.7%

67.2%

49.9%

59.7%

49%

Not Sure

8.7%

9%

8.7%

11%

9.3%

9.8%

Refused

1.5%

3.5%

0.7%

1.4%

1%

0.9%


How important would you say religion is in your own life: Very important, fairly important, or not very important?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Whites

Blacks

Working Class Whites

Very Important

70.8%

82.4%

66.1%

69%

83.6%

78%

Fairly Important

18.6%

12.7%

21%

20.4%

11.9%

14%

Not Very Important

9.2%

3.6%

11.5%

9.7%

2.2%

7.4%

Refused

1.5%

1.3%

1.5%

1%

2.2%

0.5%


Would you describe yourself as a “born again” or evangelical Christian?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Whites

Blacks

Working Class Whites

Yes

49.8%

59.5%

45.7%

48.9%

66.2%

65.8%

No

45.2%

35.5%

49.2%

47.2%

27.1%

29.3%

Not Sure

2.7%

3.3%

2.5%

2.5%

4.5%

3.8%

Refused

2.3%

1.6%

2.6%

1.5%

2.3%

1.1%


How would you describe your political beliefs, Very Liberal, Somewhat Liberal, Moderate, Somewhat Conservative, Very Conservative?

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Whites

Blacks

Working Class Whites

Very Liberal

7.4%

8.3%

7%

6.3%

11.4%

6.4%

Somewhat Liberal

15.2%

12.5%

16.2%

13.0%

27.3%

15.6%

Moderate

24.6%

22.8%

25.3%

24.7%

27.3%

28.7%

Somewhat Conservative

26.4%

26.4%

26.3%

28.5%

15.2%

19.4%

Very Conservative

23.4%

28.1%

21.6%

24.7%

16.7%

26.3%

Not Sure

2.3%

0.7%

3.1%

2.3%

1.5%

3.2%

Refused

0.8%

1.3%

0.5%

0.5%

0.8%

0.3%


Which of the following best describes your regional identity? [answers rotated]

Non-Southern
Converted Southerner
Native Southerner

All

Deep South

Peripheral South

Whites

Blacks

Working Class Whites

Non-Southern

14.6%

9.1%

16.8%

14.3%

13.6%

5.4%

Converted Southerner

20%

13.7%

22.6%

22%

6.8%

19.9%

Native Southerner

61.5%

74.6%

56%

60.8%

75%

71.9%

Not Sure

3%

1.6%

3.5%

2.2%

4.5%

2.3%

Refused

1.0%

1.0%

1.1%

0.7%

0.0%

0.5%


Some people seem to follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time, whether there’s an election or not. Others aren’t that interested. How often would you say that you follow what is going on in government and public affairs: Most of the time, Some of the time, Only now and then, or Hardly at all?

Most of the Time

73.4%

Some of the Time

18.5%

Only Now and Then

4.5%

Hardly At All

2.7%

Don’t Know/Refused

0.1%


What is your primary source for news about politics? Is it local or regional television news, cable television news, newspapers, radio, the Internet, talking with friends or family, or something else?

Local/Regional TV News

19.5%

Cable TV News

44.7%

Newspapers

16.9%

Radio

5.2%

Internet

9.2%

Friends or Family

1.6%

Something Else

1.0%

Don’t Know/Refused

1.7%

# # #

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